Georgia – a lesson for Sri Lanka

After the states in the Soviet Union gained their independence, the US wooed these former Soviet states so as to manipulate them to its advantage. The US, in particular, and the EU, in general, sought both political and economic relations with them. In effect, Western powers brazenly tried to get these former Soviet states out of the orbit of Russian influence.

The Russian Federation was in economic chaos just after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and could not do much to prevent the Western powers from bringing these states under their influence.

Much to the disapproval of Russia, the US also planted missiles in two former pro-Soviet countries viz. Poland and Czech. In addition, Kosovo was granted independence with the prospect of entry into the EU. Western powers were also eyeing Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Latvia and Moldova to involve them in their future designs. All these states were in the backyard of the Russian Federation. Russia was very worried of the situation that emerged.

Thus it had no option to stop that trend and fell back on Cold War strategy. Georgia wanting to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Russia attacked the Georgian forces in South Ossetia sending their troops there and also air raided Georgia itself.

The Western powers already caught in a quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan could not come to the rescue of Georgia. Mr. Vladimir Putin, the Prime Minister of Russia is the real power behind the Russian throne. The present Russian President is a mere puppet of Putin. Georgia’s intervention in South Ossetia was good enough for Russian to drop staid, conventional diplomatic protocol and revert to Cold War days of might is right. The Russian military pounded Georgia with air strikes and land incursions sending an emphatic message to Western powers. Kremlin in a no-nonsense message has conveyed that it is prepared to use force to halt anymore adventures into its backyard.

Russia does not need to do what she did in Georgia to her other former enclaves in the Ukraine, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia because what is now happening in Georgia has already driven home a powerful message of what would happen in these Russian enclaves, wherever they are. It is for Russia to determine what to do in former Soviet states with sizeable Russian populations – and no one else’s. Moscow’s operation in Georgia would serve as a deterrent to any other country wishing to cross swords with it in its perceived sphere of influence. Russia is the regional power and must be recognized as such.

This also is a good example for little Sri Lanka. The consequences of ignoring India and moving too close to China and Pakistan is not to the liking of the regional power in South Asia, India. In no uncertain terms have the Indian leaders expressed this notion to President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Like in 1987, there is every likelihood that India will intervene if we too try a "Georgia." Neither, China, preoccupied with building her own economy, nor will Pakistan burdened with political, economic and extremist problems come to our rescue.

Our relations with India should be conducted in a wise, patient and prudent manner. Extremist views from the JHU and the JVP must be sidelined by explaining the grave consequences of following an anti-Indian line to them.

The Rajapaksa government without further delay must implement the 13th Amendment. In their more than anticipated victory over the LTTE in the near future, the Govt. should not believe that the so-called National Problem will be sold, once for all. They are two distinct issues, but intractably intertwined.

Prudence is of the essence when the LTTE is eliminated. Should the Rajapaksa Government shows bluster and bravura, there will be grave consequences for Sri Lanka. Perhaps, a Kosovo scenario may emerge. God forbid!

Via The Island – Saybhan Samat