“Water Wars” a Myth, Say Experts

By Thalif Deen – Inter Press Service

Stockholm, Aug 26 (IPS):- The world’s future wars will be fought not over oil but water: an ominous prediction made by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the British ministry of defence and even by some officials of the World Bank.

But experts and academics meeting at an international conference on water management in the Swedish capital are dismissing this prediction as unrealistic, far-fetched and nonsensical.

"Water wars make good newspaper headlines but cooperation (agreements) don’t," says Arunabha Ghosh, co-author of the upcoming Human Development Report 2006 themed on water management. The annual report, commissioned by the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), is to be released in December.

In reality, Ghosh told the meeting in Stockholm, there are plenty of bilateral, multilateral and trans-boundary agreements for water-sharing — all or most of which do not make good newspaper copy.

Asked about water wars, Prof. Asit K. Biswas of the Mexico-based Third World Centre for Water Management, told IPS: "This is absolute nonsense because this is not going to happen — at least not during the next 100 years."

He said the world is not facing a water crisis because of physical water scarcities. "This is baloney," he said.

"What it is facing is a crisis of bad water management," argued Biswas, who was awarded the 2006 international Stockholm Water Prize for "outstanding achievements" in his field. The presentation ceremony took place in Stockholm Thursday.

According to the Paris-based U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), one-third of all river basins are shared by more than two countries.

Globally, there are 262 international river basins: 59 in Africa, 52 in Asia, 73 in Europe, 61 in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 17 in North America. Overall, 145 countries have territories that include at least one shared river basin.

Between 1948 and 1999, UNESCO says, there have been 1,831 "international interactions" recorded, including 507 conflicts, 96 neutral or non-significant events, and most importantly, 1,228 instances of cooperation.

"Despite the potential problem, history has demonstrated that cooperation, rather than conflict, is likely in shared basins," UNESCO concludes.

The Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) says that 10- to 20-year-old arguments about conflict over water are still being recycled.

"Such arguments ignore massive amounts of recent research which shows that water-scarce states that share a water body tend to find cooperative solutions rather than enter into violent conflict," the institute says.

SIWI says that during the entire "intifada" — the ongoing Palestinian uprising against Israel in the occupied territories of West Bank and Gaza — the only thing on which the two warring parties continued to cooperate at a basic level was their shared waters.

"Thus, rather than reaching for arguments for the ‘water war hypotheses,’ the facts seem to support the idea that water is a uniting force and a potential source of peace rather than violent conflict." SIWI said.

Ghosh, co-author of the UNDP study, pointed out several agreements which were "models of cooperation", including the Indus Waters Treaty, the Israel-Jordan accord, the Senegal River Development Organisation and the Mekong River Commission.

A study sponsored by the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars points that despite newspaper headlines screaming "water wars are coming!", these apocalyptic warnings fly in the face of history.

"No nations have gone to war specifically over water resources for thousands of years. International water disputes — even among fierce enemies — are resolved peacefully, even as conflicts erupt over other issues," it says.

The study also points out instances of cooperation between riparian nations — countries or provinces bordering the same river — that outnumbered conflicts by more than two to one between 1945 and 1999.

Why? "Because water is so important, nations cannot afford to fight over it. Instead, water fuels greater interdependence. By coming together to jointly manage their shared water resources, countries can build trust and prevent conflict," argues the study, jointly co-authored by Aaron Wolf, Annika Kramer, Alexander Carius and Geoffrey Dabelko.

The study also says most of the conflicts have been within nations, and that international rivers are a different story, although a vice president of the World Bank predicted in 1995 that "the wars of the next century will be about water."

In the early 1990s, California farmers bombed pipelines moving water from Owens Valley to Los Angeles, and in 2000 Chinese farmers in Shandong clashed with police to protest government plans to divert irrigation water to cities and industries.

Ghosh cited two recent incidents impacting on water supplies. When Israeli fighter jets recently reduced parts of the Lebanese capital Beirut into rubble, the U.S.-made F-16s also destroyed an important source of life sustenance: water pipelines from the Litani River to farmland along the coastal plain and parts of the Bekaa Valley.

The longstanding conflict in Sri Lanka — which has been dragging for over 20 years — was resumed last month over the diversion of a canal by the rebel group, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, fighting for a separate nation state.

"These are two more cases for those who predict water wars," Ghosh said.

- Inter Press Service (IPS) News Agency -

Via… Picture Politics

US crackdown on terrorists and Norway’s mollycoddling of Tigers

In 1997, the LTTE was designated by the U.S. State Department as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and, therefore, may not legally raise money or procure specified equipment or materials in the United States. The complaints however allege that the defendants’ conspiracy to provide material support to LTTE included fund raising in the United States and Canada, relying on "front" charitable organizations to give the fund raising the appearance of legitimacy. These organizations were also used to send goods and material to LTTE in Sri Lanka. Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales had stressed that the multi-faceted scheme by members and supporters of the Sri Lankan organization known as the Tamil Tigers demonstrates the need for ‘continued vigilance’ in the global war against terrorists.

Political Panorama

By Shakuntala Perera
  Till September 11, 2001 Sri Lanka had a lone and futile fight against terror. Sri Lanka had suffered the evils of terror for 18 long years before US President Bush first ‘saw evil, the very worst of human nature’. When he proclaimed that ‘terrorists will remember September the 11th as the day their reckoning began’, Sri Lanka sighed in relief. Finally there was understanding.

‘Many nations and many families have lived in the shadow of terrorism for decades, and during years of mindless and merciless killing. September the 11th was not the beginning of global terror, but it was the beginning of the world’s concerted response,’ he said.

In an address to the nation hours after the attack on the Twin Towers, Bush said the ‘search is underway for those who are behind these evil acts.

“I’ve directed the full resources of our intelligence and law enforcement communities to find those responsible and to bring them to justice. We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them”, he said. And he didn’t.

The arrest of eleven LTTE operatives for ‘multiple crimes’, including conspiracy to provide material support and resources to the ‘designated foreign terrorist organization LTTE’, in the US early this week are all results of such action.
Four of the defendants were arrested on Long Island, N.Y., on Aug. 19, 2006, after three of them traveled to New York from Canada to attempt to purchase from an agent acting in undercover capacity Russian-made SA-18 surface-to-air missiles, missile launchers, AK-47s and other weapons to be used by the LTTE. They were directly in touch with the LTTE leadership according to the US Department of Justice.

In the second complaint, multiple defendants are charged with providing material support to the LTTE that included the procurement of military equipment and dual use technology, fund raising and money laundering through "front" charitable organizations and U.S. bank accounts. The complaint also charges that the defendants attempted to obtain classified information, conspired to bribe U.S. public officials in an effort to remove the LTTE from the U.S. State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations, and dealt in illegal financial transactions with LTTE.

In 1997, the LTTE was designated by the U.S. State Department as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and, therefore, may not legally raise money or procure specified equipment or materials in the United States.

The complaints however allege that the defendants’ conspiracy to provide material support to LTTE included fund raising in the United States and Canada, relying on "front" charitable organizations to give the fund raising the appearance of legitimacy. These organizations were also used to send goods and material to LTTE in Sri Lanka.

Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales had stressed that the multi-faceted scheme by members and supporters of the Sri Lankan organization known as the Tamil Tigers demonstrates the need for ‘continued vigilance’ in the global war against terrorists.

"These defendants allegedly sought to obtain, through a variety of means, weapons and materials to carry out a deadly campaign of violence. We will use every tool in our power to disrupt the activities of those who seek to harm others, both here and abroad," he added.

It was also revealed that US Congressman Danny Davis and an aide took a trip to Sri Lanka last year funded entirely by the LTTE. His one week stay has come under scrutiny by the defense authorities as the arrests were being made. He had denied knowledge that the LTTE paid for his trip. In fact he has said in a required congressional disclosure form that the trip was paid for by an Illinois based Tamil cultural organization, the Federation of Tamil Sangams of North America.

The arrests and revelations came barely days after US Principle Deputy Assistant Secretary South and Central Asian Affairs, Ambassador Steven Mann ended a two day visit to Sri Lanka. He had clear messages to both the government and the LTTE. His word that the ‘spot light’ was on the LTTE was no doubt, ominous.

“There are two sides to the fighting. The LTTE has a direct, clear, immediate responsibility to cease hostilities, “he said.

He stressed that the ban against the LTTE will ‘remain in effect as long as the LTTE espouses terrorist methods and uses them to advance its cause.

Mann was very specific with his words; “Make no mistake here. The US view on the LTTE has been a long due public record. We have been very consistent in that. But we don’t want the US role limited to saying if we are fighting it worldwide why aren’t we doing it here in Sri Lanka,” he said. The arrest clearly indicated that their work was not limited to the rest of the world.

According to Colombo based diplomatic sources, the US visit was a warning that the LTTE ‘clearly ignored.

“The LTTE is making far too many mistakes. It’s failing to decipher some of the global messages. They are fast failing to take chances given to come back to negotiations. These are not mature moves,” he added.

Mann did not play with his words either; “The LTTE has brought that on its’ self. Let’s keep that focus where it belongs. The US has long designated the LTTE as an international terrorist organization. We have a very clear view on that. It is listed as such,” he said.

Diplomatic sources maintain that this was clear message to any European countries that may be having ‘jitters’ about the ban. “The US will not change the ban. The LTTE has not given reason to do so. In fact their responses have been clearly to the contrary,” it was said.

Mann sounded impressed with the responses of the government and President Rajapaksa. Except, when he believed that the government must look seriously at legitimate concerns of the Tamil people.

The timing of the US arrests also had purpose. The US actions came in the wake of a crucial European Union meeting in Brussels last afternoon. The meeting of EU Foreign Ministers is strongly expected to deal with the Sri Lankan situation among other key global concerns. Among other areas of discussions is aid to the United Nations peace keeping efforts in Lebanon.

Strong Norwegian led campaigning against the ban on the LTTE will be the highlight of discussion. Outgoing Swedish Head of the Sri Lankan truce monitors, Ulf Henriccson, criticized the EU ban claiming it ‘a mistake’

“It was a wrong decision because… the LTTE and the government have signed the ceasefire agreement as equal partners."

"If one is suddenly on a terrorist list it’s not very difficult to see we’re going to run into difficulties, which we have done," he was quoted by AFP.

Henriccson was angry with the EU for having ‘ignored’ a memo he sent when the ban was initially under consideration. HE claims that the ban meant the Sri Lankan government thought it had "carte blanche" to take on the Tigers.

"I think the EU thought that the government of Sri Lanka was a responsible government, who could take the appropriate decision and work for peace instead of war," he said. He is reportedly "more convinced than other" that there would be no military solution to the Sri Lankan crisis.

Diplomatic sources questioned the rationale for the thinking and the basis for the non-bias nature the monitors were expected to have. IN fact the SLMM Head told this columnist last week that ‘no military victory was possible.

“Why should it? It had gone on for 25 years. Why should we have a military solution today? I don’t believe in it,” he said. In fact he was waiting for ‘them’ to get stuck.

“My opinion is that they will because there is no military solution,” he added.

Throughout the interview he refused to accept that the government was engaging in defensive action against those perpetrated by the LTTE. He insisted on the government offensive to release the Mawil Aru dam as the starting point of the intensification of the war. Asked if the attempts on the Army Commander and killing the third in command in the army were not serious CFA violations leading to military responses from the government troops he said;

“Yes, but it depends on where you start the series. You can even go back to 1948 to find the reason for this conflict. But we can’t change what has happened, but you can the future,” he said instead.

But the fact remains that the future of terrorism in Sri Lanka may largely depend on the actions of facilitators like Norway, which has throughout used its role to deny successive Sri Lankan governments its right to protect its sovereignty. In a sense terrorists remain and gather courage from anti-government actions like those of Norway. And that may be a bigger threat to the country than what even the LTTE may pose.

Via… Daily Mirror